Retail activity in the United States continued its upward trajectory in March, supported by an influx of tax refunds that helped consumers manage higher fuel costs amid geopolitical tensions.
According to data released by National Retail Federation, spending rose for the sixth straight month, reflecting steady demand for essential goods despite ongoing pressure from inflation and cautious consumer sentiment.
“Early tax refunds provided a timely lift, helping offset rising gas prices,” said Matthew Shay. He noted that while shoppers remain selective, spending has held firm in key categories.
Retail sales excluding automobiles and fuel recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase in March, with annual growth accelerating to 6.59%. Core sales—excluding restaurants—also showed improvement, rising 0.41% over February and 7.05% compared to the same period last year.
For the first quarter overall, total retail sales climbed 6.18% year-on-year, while core sales advanced 6.14%, highlighting sustained consumer activity.
A key driver behind this momentum was improved household liquidity. Data from the Internal Revenue Service indicated that average tax refunds reached $3,521 by late March, marking an 11.1% increase from the previous year following recent tax changes.
The Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, draws on anonymised card transaction data, offering a more real-time view of spending patterns without relying on survey-based estimates.