Trump Tariffs Spark Uncertainty in India’s Gems and Jewellery Trade Outlook

Cut & polished diamonds ↓ 6.29% Rough diamond imports ↑ 3.18% Lab-grown polished diamonds ↓ 2.29% Gold jewellery ↑ 63.24% Platinum jewellery ↑ 13.52% Coloured gemstones ↓ 4.46%
Trump Tariffs Spark Uncertainty in India’s Gems and Jewellery Trade Outlook
Trump Tariffs Spark Uncertainty in India’s Gems and Jewellery Trade Outlook
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As per the data released by the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), the apex body for gems and jewellery in India the overall gross exports of Gems & Jewellery at US$ 2117.05 million (Rs. 18529.08 crores) in the month of August 2025 is showing a growth of (+)5.12% (9.67% in Rs. term) as compared to US$ 2013.93 million (Rs. 16896.04 crores) for the same period of previous year. While the primary growth trigger is the rush among Indian exporters to minimize the impact of tariff threat, other positive elements including Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) such as India-UAE CEPA, and reduced duties on imports for raw materials have also played a pivotal role.

On the other hand, The overall gross imports of Gems & Jewellery at US$ 1471.85 million (Rs. 12887.18 crores) in month of AUG 2025 is showing a growth of (+) 0.77% (5.17% in Rs. term) as compared to US$ 1460.56 million (Rs. 12253.84 crores) for the same period of previous year. This rise is marginal in nature and reflects a steady demand for raw and semi-finished products back in the home country to support production for the upcoming holiday season internationally as well as domestic festive demand.

The overall gross export of Cut & Polished diamonds at US$ 972.29 million (Rs. 8508.66 crores) in the month of August 2025 is showing a decline of (-)6.29% (-2.260% in Rs. Term) as compared to US$ 1037.59 million (Rs. 8705.35 crores) for the same period of previous year. The decline in exports of cut and polished diamonds in August 2025 can be attributed to the rising affinity towards yellow metal in the US and Europe, where sluggish spending on luxury items caused overall demand to fall.

Cut and Polished Diamonds: The overall gross export of Cut & Polished diamonds at US$ 972.29 million (Rs. 8508.66 crores) in the month of August 2025 is showing a decline of (-)6.29% (-2.260% in Rs. Term) as compared to US$ 1037.59 million (Rs. 8705.35 crores) for the same period of previous year. The decline in exports of cut and polished diamonds in August 2025 can be attributed to the rising affinity towards yellow metal in the US and Europe, where sluggish spending on luxury items caused overall demand to fall.

Retailers across major market are also witnessing a slump in sales, inflating the unsold inventory which slowed down new purchases. Parallelly, the continued increase in the global demand for lab-grown diamonds on the backdrop of being environment-friendly and cost-effective have also eaten up some share of natural diamond from the demand pie.

Similarly, the overall gross imports of Cut & Polished diamonds at US$ 112.70 million (Rs. 986.18 crores) in month of AUG 2025 is showing a decline of (-)3.65% (0.49% in Rs. term) as compared to US$ 116.97 million (Rs. 981.40 crores) for the same period of previous year. The decline in cut and polished diamond imports in August 2025 reflects a slump in buying from domestic traders and manufacturers due to global price corrections and slower retail offtake. With procurement on the cautious side and overall inventory remaining comfortable, purchases of new stock were even more limited. Having said that, domestic consumption is likely to pick up on the backdrop of festive season.

Rough Diamonds: Gross imports of rough diamonds at US$ 5142.55 million (Rs 44205.64 crores) in APR 2025 - AUG 2025 have shown a growth of (+) 3.18% (6.22% Rs. term) compared with the imports at US$ 4984.15 million (Rs. 41616.04 crores) for previous year. India remained the world's cutting and polishing center and received more rough diamonds. Rupee depreciation also inflated import values in INR terms (+6.22%) even though dollar growth was soft. While demand for natural polished diamonds remains weak, some rough categories showed improvements in buying as players saw the long-term supply limited into the festive supply.

Platinum: Provisional gross export of Platinum Jewellery for the period APR 2025 - AUG 2025 at US$ 83.15 million (Rs. 715.91 crores) shown growth of (+)13.52% (16.97% Rs. term) over the comparative figure of US$ 73.25 million (Rs. 612.06 crores) for previous year. The increase in platinum usage in men's jewellery and the move toward branded collections accelerated turnover at the retail front. Turnover was positively impacted by festive and wedding season demand, as well by international retailers who were restocking ahead of their winter wedding season. In addition, depreciation of the rupee against the dollar improved INR realizations and supported overall increases in value.

Polished Lab Grown Diamonds: Provisional gross export of Polished Lab Grown Diamonds for the period August 2025 at US$ 97.80 million (in Rs. 855.67 crores) shows a decline of (-) 2.29% (+1.90% in Rs. term) over the comparative figure of US$ 100.09 million (Rs. 839.72 crores) for the previous year. The drop in lab-grown diamond exports (in dollar value) in August 2025 was primarily due to price corrections in the global LGD market, as the pressures of oversupply, and increasing competitive offer from other manufacturing hubs, had an impact on realizations. However, the fact that international demand remained steady, particularly from the US and Europe, the rupee depreciated, and that INR exports were positive (+1.90%) somewhat buffered the overall output.

Gold Jewellery: The total export of Plain Gold Jewellery at US$ 419.51 million (Rs. 3672.77 crores) in month of AUG 2025 is showing a growth of (+) 63.24(70.36% in Rs. term) as compared to US$ 256.99 million (Rs. 2155.95 crores) for the same period of previous year. The robust growth seen in plain gold jewellery exports during August 2025 was supported by strong demand in key markets, particularly the Middle East and US, in the context of festive and wedding purchases particularly strengthened by the India-UAE CEPA. A worldwide consumer interest to buy lightweight and everyday wear led to orders being stimulated, as did international retail stock builds before festive and wedding buying later this year. Furthermore, government policy support such as cuts in customs duties and facilitation of trade have made Indian exports more competitive in international markets.

Silver Jewellery: Provisional gross export of Silver Jewellery for the period APR 2025 - AUG 2025 at US$ 419.09 million (Rs. 3613.06 crores) shows growth of (+) 12.48% ( 16.06% Rs. term) over the comparative figure of US$ 372.6 million (Rs. 3113.05 crores) for previous year. The growth in silver jewellery exports during April – August 2025 was improved by the growing global demand for affordable precious jewellery. Overall silver is becoming more popular as a stylish and affordable alternative to gold. With more lightweight and contemporary design acceptance from especially younger consumers, export orders were better. Silver collections are also becoming more branded and aligned with the fashion community which directly supported better orders from overseas markets. Restocking of festive and wedding-related inventory by overseas retailers added some additional cargo. Additionally, the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, created better realizations in INR terms and therefore, higher value growth.

Coloured Gemstones: Provisional gross export of Coloured Gemstones for the period APR 2025 - AUG 2025 at US$ 149.44 million (in Rs. 1284.59 crores) shows decline of (-) 4.46% (1.74% in Rs. term) over the comparative figure of US$ 156.41 million (Rs. 1307.31 crores) for previous year. The demand dynamics of coloured gemstones rely little on the macro and micro-economic factors and is more so to do with real-time trends, with the buyers’ category being a niche. 

Commenting on the same, Mr. Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewellery said, “The Indian gems & jewellery sector is evolving with sheer agility to absorb the jitters of US tariffs and economic uncertainty it has created. There were strong numbers in August 2025 showing growth and density of exports to international markets, highlighting the rush among the exporters community to conduct trade early and get saved from the tariffs.

Parallelly, fresh opportunities as close alternatives to the US due to trade deals (eg: India-UAE CEPA), and consumers are increasingly gravitating toward sustainable, premium, and custom jewellery. Highly priced gold, global volatility, and volatile metal markets are persistent challenges, but coming out of the upcoming festive and wedding season will bring new energy to the sector.”

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