Gold steps into 2026 after an exceptional year that saw prices scale new highs again and again. The momentum was driven by global unease, a softening dollar and strong investor interest, all of which created a powerful lift through 2025.
The year ahead, however, is shaping up to be far more balanced. If today’s economic backdrop stays intact, prices may trade within a relatively tight range. A gentle global slowdown, easing job markets and deeper rate cuts could offer a modest lift of roughly 5% to 15%.
If worldwide tensions escalate or trade routes feel fresh strain, that cushion could grow, pushing gains closer to 15% to 30%. But an upswing in the US economy could pull the other way. Stronger growth, higher yields and a firmer dollar may weigh on the metal, potentially trimming prices by 5% to 20%.
Demand from central banks and recycling patterns will remain key variables. Many emerging economies are still building reserves, suggesting ongoing appetite for gold. Meanwhile, India’s preference for using gold as loan security has kept recycling relatively subdued, though a sharper economic dip could change that.
With unpredictable events shaping markets more often, gold is still expected to play its familiar role—providing balance and resilience in portfolios facing an uncertain 2026.