Surat’s diamond trade, the backbone of India’s gem and jewellery exports, is grappling with a sharp decline in shipments to the United States after the imposition of a 50% tariff. Exports of cut and polished diamonds (CPD) to the U.S. have plunged to $4.9 billion in 2024-25 — barely a third of the $13.58 billion recorded in 2022-23.
Falling natural diamond prices, waning consumer appetite, the popularity of more affordable lab-grown alternatives, and global economic uncertainty have all contributed to the downturn in the U.S. market.
However, industry experts believe the slowdown could be offset by demand from China. Historically, China and Hong Kong were even bigger buyers of Indian CPD than the U.S., with imports worth over $10 billion in 2017-18. In 2024-25, as China’s economy shows signs of recovery, its imports from India touched $3.2 billion, presenting an opportunity to rebalance exports.
"Buyers in China are returning as their economy steadies, and this can ease the pressure on us,” noted Dinesh Navadiya, chairman of the Indian Diamond Institute.
Despite the tariff shock, diamond industry veterans are confident in India’s dominance. “No other country can match Surat’s capacity, technology, or cost efficiency. The impact is temporary — once markets adjust, demand will return,” said Jagdish Khunt, president of the Surat Diamond Association.
Meanwhile, the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) is actively guiding manufacturers to diversify. Through seminars and workshops, the council is introducing exporters to new geographies and product requirements in an effort to secure growth beyond traditional markets.
The consensus across the trade is clear: the road ahead may be rough, but with strategic pivots and Surat’s unparalleled expertise, India’s diamond industry is poised to sparkle again.