Chow Tai Fook Signals Caution as Gold Tax Shift Hits Momentum

The jeweller posts softer profits as China’s gold tax change clouds its outlook. Rising costs, volatile prices and fierce competition add pressure despite hopes for a steady H2 recovery.
Chow Tai Fook Signals Caution as Gold Tax Shift Hits Momentum
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Chow Tai Fook reported a modest dip below profit expectations, reflecting the tougher conditions shaping China’s jewellery landscape. The group posted first-half net income of HK$2.5 billion, slightly shy of forecasts, with gross margin easing to 30.5%. The company noted that stronger demand for higher-margin fixed-price pieces and the lift from gold prices helped cushion performance.

In mainland China, average selling prices for fixed-price gold jewellery continued to rise, supported by a premiumisation strategy aimed at standing out in an increasingly crowded market. Even so, the retailer continues to navigate a mix of challenges — from erratic gold prices and subdued consumer spending to stronger competition from emerging domestic brands.

The road ahead has become less predictable following the removal of China’s long-standing tax rebate on gold from 1 November, a policy shift that may increase costs for shoppers and tighten retailer margins. Chow Tai Fook has already made selective price adjustments to reflect earlier gold price movements.

Despite the near-term uncertainties, the company maintains confidence in sustaining its recovery through the second half of fiscal 2026. Its shares have surged 127% so far this year, underscoring investors’ faith in its long-term trajectory.

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